5
Pretty Liza
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 73
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |