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2

Sobiech

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74

Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 68 · 5f Fas 120 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 68 par22/01C8OR 68C8 @ Gulfstream 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 64 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Gulfstream 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 64 par26/03C8OR 64C8 @ Woodbine 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 6f 118 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 64 par15/05C8OR 64C8 @ Woodbine 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 69 par20/07C5OR 69C5 @ Fort Erie 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Woodbine 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 74 par10/09C8OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Woodbine?2nd2nd0
2026-08-17Fort Erie?3rd0th+3
2026-07-20Fort Erie?3rd0th+3
2026-06-11Woodbine?2nd2nd0
2026-05-15Woodbine?1st1st0
2026-04-25Woodbine?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0125/0420/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
14/02/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
26/03/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
25/04/20262nd5/696%80%-0.16
15/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
11/06/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63
20/07/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
17/08/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
10/09/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36