4
Tanzanite Lily
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 11/8 | 93% | 13% | -0.80 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |