2
Lovely Summer
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 42
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |