That's A Fact
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 61
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |