Chervonaruta
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 43% | -0.51 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |