Chocolatecroissant

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 72

Woodbine · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +2.1

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Woodbine	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2026-07-23	Woodbine	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-07-04	Woodbine	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-06-11	Woodbine	?	3rd	1st	+2	9.4
2026-01-18	Gulfstream	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength89%

Delivery trend +10.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/01/2026	11th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68
11/06/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	71%	-0.14
04/07/2026	6th	11/4	86%	29%	-0.57
23/07/2026	5th	11/4	86%	50%	-0.36
27/08/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	86%	-0.04