Rideau Falls
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 60
Woodbine · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |