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17:45 · Newcastle

Selwood Handicap

5fGoing TBCClass 63YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 54
9/2
Khabib silks

Mr Ray Craggs

Khabib

8yo Gelding · 9-9

Mehmas - Lady Mega (Kodiac)

C Horgan0/2−5lbR Craggs60%
098974
4.0Class ↓4
Cheek pieces

On a long losing run but has come down in the handicap as a result and ran his most encouraging race of the year when 2¾ lengths fourth of 9 to Invincible Crown in handicap (14/1) at this C&D 6 days ago, unable to sustain effort. Needs to build on that now.

Class Advantage

25/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par25/082/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par16/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par1/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below1/08 · mark par3/09 · C6 · finish vs mark below3/09 · mark par19/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 14 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 14 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 13%25/08Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 22%16/06Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 14%3/09Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 63%19/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.9%Ahead 3/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 54
9/4
Invincible Crown silks

Grange Park Racing Viii & Mrs R Carr

Invincible Crown

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Inns Of Court - Nurse Dee (Kodiac)

J P Sullivan60%3/19Mrs R Carr
144031
7.0

Hold-up performer who exploited a career-low mark over C&D last Saturday. Shouldered with a 5 lb penalty but he won off 1 lb higher last October. Leading claims.

Class Advantage

30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par30/0615/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par3/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par17/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/08 · mark par3/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par19/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%30/06Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 25%3/08Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%3/09Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%19/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.3%Ahead 1/4
6
3
OR 51
11/2
Havin A Flyer silks

Rebecca Menzies Racing Club

Havin A Flyer

3yo Filly · 9-5

Havana Grey - Nantosuelta (Kodiac)

Tom Kiely-Marshall60%1/7R Menzies70%
321346
5.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Finally took advantage of a much-reduced mark at Southwell (5f) in July. Respectable efforts on next 2 outings but faded into sixth back at Southwell last time.

Class Advantage

18/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par18/067/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/07 · mark par23/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par30/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par4/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/08 · mark par17/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 78%18/06Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%23/07Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 71%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 50%4/08Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 55%17/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.5%Ahead 1/4
4
5
OR 51
11/2
Phoenix Beach silks

Mr Robert Dearnaley

Phoenix Beach

7yo Gelding · 9-6

Mehmas - Inverse (Oasis Dream)

Cam Hardie70%S Dixon60%
355707
3.0
Cheek pieces

It's now 19 runs since last win in 2025 and he's rarely threatened this year. Possible a recent Southwell outing was needed after 3 months off but still hard to be confident about.

Class Advantage

20/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par20/034/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/04 · mark par21/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par22/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par13/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par17/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%20/03Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%21/04Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 23%13/06Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 45%17/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.6%Ahead 1/4
5
6
OR 50
5/1
Sixcor silks

Linda Perratt Racing

Sixcor

8yo Gelding · 9-5

Sixties Icon - Roccor (Rock Of Gibraltar)

P Mulrennan60%1/6Miss L A Perratt60%
146616
5.0
Cheek pieces

Latest win at Wolverhampton in August. Respectable sixth of 11 in handicap at Musselburgh (5f, good to firm, 11/1) 13 days ago.

Class Advantage

27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/0731/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par10/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par24/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par26/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above26/08 · mark par12/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%27/07Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 40%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 58%10/08Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 44%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%26/08Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%12/09
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.6%Ahead 3/4
3
7
OR 51
10/1
Doralee silks

Harrowgate Bloodstock Ltd

Doralee

5yo Mare · 9-6

Swiss Spirit - Jofranka (Paris House)

D Nolan1/2T D Barron
423148
5.0

Latest win at Redcar in August. Fair fourth at Wolverhampton next time but well beaten at Musselburgh (5f, good to firm) since.

Class Advantage

25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par25/0627/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par4/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/08 · mark par8/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par1/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par12/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%25/06Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 80%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 67%4/08Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 57%1/09Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 30%12/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.2%Ahead 3/4
7
4
OR 45
12/1
Shatin Venture silks

Jackton Racing Club

Shatin Venture

5yo Gelding · 9-0

Profitable - Circleofinfluence (Eurosilver)

Jack Callan60%Miss L A Perratt
042599
3.0Class ↓4

Sole win came over C&D in March 2025. Rather in-and-out on the all-weather earlier in the year and last of 9 back from a break here 23 days ago. Needs to have come on a lot.

Class Advantage

1/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/01 · mark par1/0116/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/01 · mark par15/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/02 · mark par24/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/02 · mark par6/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/03 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 10 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 18%1/01Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 88%15/02Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%6/03Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%2/09
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.9%Ahead 2/4
8
8
OR 46
33/1
Moretons silks

Northumberland Racing Club

Moretons

3yo Gelding · 9-0

Cotai Glory - Millvina (Dutch Art)

Amie Waugh0/7S Waugh
556890
2.0

Remains a maiden after 16 starts and has been well below par in recent turf outings. It remains to be seen whether a return to all-weather sparks him back to life.

Class Advantage

22/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par22/0429/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par19/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par30/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par12/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 43%22/04Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 55%19/05Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 11%22/06Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%12/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.8%Ahead 2/4