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4

Hawksbill

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 92

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been finding his feet for current yard this year, running well when at Glorious Goodwood (twice) and the York Ebor meeting in recent months. A prominent showing is likely for a yard no stranger to success in this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 130 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 98 par13/092OR 98C0 @ Meydan 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 133C0 @ Meydan 06/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f 1296/02C?C0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1301 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 94 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 94 par6/031OR 943 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 94 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par29/073OR 932 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 93 · 7f192y GS 123 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 93 par20/082OR 93projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York24th4th0
2026-07-31Goodwood27th7th0
2026-07-29Goodwood35th6th−1
2026-06-25Newmarket37th8th−1
2026-03-06Meydan110th8th+1
2026-02-13Meydan?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0913/0229/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/202513th9/153%8%-0.45
16/01/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
06/02/202612th6/168%21%-0.47
13/02/20266th11/142%62%+0.19
06/03/202610th33/10%25%+0.25
25/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
29/07/20265th9/153%79%+0.26
31/07/20267th25/10%65%+0.65
20/08/20264th28/10%77%+0.77