12:55 · Ayr

Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery

6fGoing TBCClass 22YO onlyTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
Top Pick1
OR 80
7/1
Trumpety Trump silks

Mr James Mearns Long

2yo Colt · 8-12

Churchill - Asaatier (War Front)

Lauren Young60%1/1−5lbJ S Goldie
3421
7.0Going 8.0

Showed more than most of stable's 2-y-o debutants when close third of 4 in a muddling race at Ayr in July. Couple of lesser efforts followed but much improved ridden more positively when making a winning nursery debut at Hamilton. 5 lb rise looks very fair.

Class Advantage

5/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a5/0717/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a17/0721/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/082/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength19%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 75%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%5/07Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 25%17/07Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%21/08Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%2/09
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.4%Ahead 3/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 91
9/4
Dontlookanyfurther silks

John Blackburn & Ross Harmon

2yo Colt · 9-9

Space Traveller - Valenciana (Lope De Vega)

Jason Hart60%2/3J & S Quinn
611
8.0

Space Traveller colt who is progressing rapidly, supplementing his Redcar novice win under a penalty at Thirsk 2 weeks ago. Was very impressive on latter occasion and with more to come, his opening mark could be lenient.

Class Advantage

1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/0722/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/085/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%1/07Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%22/08Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%5/09
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +40.8%Ahead 3/3
3
3
OR 88
12/1
Crystal Queen silks

Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum

2yo Filly · 9-6

Cotai Glory - Silver Sabre (Epaulette)

Warren Fentiman60%R A Fahey60%
2100
4.0Going 8.0Class ↓2

Confirmed her debut promise when winning the 8-runner Hilary Needler at Beverley (5f, good to firm) in May. No impact in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and also set another stiff task on first crack at 6f in the Lowther. Nurseries more suitable.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/0530/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a30/0517/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0620/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%20/05Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%30/05Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 54%17/06Pos 13 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 25%20/08
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength85%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.3%Ahead 4/4
2
9
OR 88
6/1
Siouxperb silks

Valmont

2yo Gelding · 9-6

Sioux Nation - Swing Out Sister (Kodiac)

D Tudhope60%A Watson
1028
4.0Class ↓2

Sioux Nation colt who made a winning start in a Yarmouth (6f) in April. Not ideally placed when down the field in the Coventry at Royal Ascot but quickly back on track when going down fighting in a Newcastle novice (6f) in July. Found the Acomb all too much a month ago and this more realistic.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/0416/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/0631/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/0719/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par19/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%21/04Pos 18 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 18 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 15%16/06Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 86%31/07Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 22%19/08
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength87%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.1%Ahead 2/4
6
7
OR 82
8/1
Influencer Man silks

Allen, Finneran & Porter

2yo Gelding · 9-0

Starman - Stormy Clouds (Sir Prancealot)

Mikey Sheehy60%1/3A Keatley60%
4214
5.0Going 7.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Improving Starman gelding who dug deep when bagging 7-runner nursery at Carlisle (5f, good to firm) last month. Runner-up that day won next time but fitted with cheekpieces, he took a backward step at Newcastle. Back up to 6f with a tongue tie now on instead.

Class Advantage

5/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a5/0718/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/0711/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par11/0820/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%5/07Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 75%18/07Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%11/08Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%20/08
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.4%Ahead 2/4
4
6
OR 84
7/1
Tropical Crown silks

Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum

2yo Filly · 9-2

Perfect Power - Tutu Nguru (Blame)

Pierre-Louis Jamin60%1/2K R Burke60%
15
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓1

£100,000 breeze-up purchase who comfortably landed 7-runner novice at Beverley (5f) on debut in July. Fifth of 9 in listed company after and more needed to defy this mark, albeit she's in top hands.

Class Advantage

3/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/0722/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength22%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%3/07Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%22/07
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.7%Ahead 1/2
5
4
OR 83
20/1
Baddaddan silks

Phil Cunningham

2yo Gelding · 9-1

Mehmas - Atomic Lady (Kodiac)

Saffie Osborne70%0/1R Spencer80%
4100
3.0
1st Blinkers +3

Confirmed the promise of his Newbury debut (fourth behind a useful pair) when landing 3-runner novice at Nottingham (6f). Struggled faced with a very different test in big-field Newmarket sales race but didn't do a lot better on nursery debut at Doncaster last week. Blinkers reached for.

Class Advantage

18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/0711/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a11/0822/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/0811/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 67%18/07Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%11/08Pos 14 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 14 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 24%22/08Pos 13 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 13 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 14%11/09
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.1%Ahead 2/4
11
8
OR 74
10/1
Deputy Vice silks

Caspian Racing Limited

2yo Gelding · 8-6

Mehmas - Second Glance (Galileo)

Rhys Elliott60%0/1−5lbR Menzies
3443
5.0
Tongue strap

Mehmas gelding who has failed to build on a promising debut third in 6f novice at Chester in May in 3 subsequent starts. In very capable hands and mark certainly exploitable if returning to that level.

Class Advantage

30/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a30/058/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a8/0627/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par27/063/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 80%30/05Pos 4 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 4 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 0%8/06Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 40%27/06Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 67%3/09
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.9%Ahead 2/4
10
5
OR 76
20/1
Furturra silks

Nick Bradley Racing 4 & Partner

2yo Gelding · 8-8

Caturra - Fairy Stories (Mayson)

Joanna Mason60%T D Easterby
124053
4.0Going 8.0

Already had plenty of racing when doubling his tally in a Redcar novice (6f) in June. Mixed fortunes since but back to form when third of 9 at Thirsk 2 weeks ago. Eased 1 lb so can make his presence felt.

Class Advantage

20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/0627/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par20/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par27/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par5/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%20/06Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 90%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 57%11/07Pos 13 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 37%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 33%27/08Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%5/09
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.6%Ahead 1/4
9
13
OR 78
16/1
Gladys Pugh silks

Exors Of The Late Sheikh Mohammed Obai

2yo Filly · 8-10

Mehmas - Charming Spirit (Invincible Spirit)

O McSweeneyK A Ryan
526
4.0

Mehmas filly who was much improved from debut when second of 6 in novice at York (6f, good to firm) in July. Unable to repeat that form at Chester and mark looks stiff on balance on first 3 runs.

Class Advantage

10/07 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a10/0725/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a25/0722/08 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength16%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 43%10/07Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 80%25/07Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 17%22/08
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.2%Ahead 1/3
8
10
OR 79
20/1
Mind Those Steps silks

Reality Partnerships Vii

2yo Colt · 8-11

Pinatubo - Spinatrix (Diktat)

D Allan60%1/3T D Easterby80%
3100
3.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Confirmed debut promise when narrowly opening his account at Hamilton in May. Wasn't given a hard time after meeting some early interference in a Newcastle novice before predictably struggling in a valuable sales race a month ago. Cheekpieces added switched to a nursery.

Class Advantage

25/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a25/0417/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a17/0525/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par25/0720/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%25/04Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%17/05Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 23%25/07Pos 20 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 20 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 0%20/08
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.3%Ahead 3/4
13
11
OR 67
16/1
Inns And Out silks

S Bulmer, P Hebdon & Partner

2yo Gelding · 8-2

Inns Of Court - Keska (Iffraaj)

J P Sullivan60%T D Easterby
536913
5.0Going 8.0

Made little impact on nursery debut at Thirsk before having the run of the race when landing a 7f Musselburgh maiden last month. Backed that up when third at Beverley 5 days later so arrives in good order but no easy task from out of the weights.

Class Advantage

2/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/0618/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par25/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par30/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move3
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 33%2/06Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 44%25/06Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 27%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%25/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%30/08
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength5%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.7%Ahead 1/4
12
12
OR 68
33/1
Turnstile silks

Ontoawinner 10 & Partner

2yo Gelding · 8-2

Territories - Poppy Pivot (Pivotal)

D FentimanT D Easterby
733375
3.0

Fair maiden who was a good third of 15 in seller at York in June. Failed to land the odds next time and far more exposed than most nursery debutants. Just out of the weights and has been gelded.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a23/056/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a30/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par4/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 14%23/05Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%12/06Pos 3 · SP 2/5 | Expected: 98%Pos 3 · SP 2/5 | Actual: 60%Pos 7 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 7 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 25%4/07Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%17/07
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -20.8%Ahead 1/4