14:50 · Gowran Park

Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3)

1m 1f 100yGoing TBCClass 13YO plusTURF12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 105
15/8
Faiyum silks

Juddmonte

4yo Filly · 9-7

Frankel - Quail (Pivotal)

Gary Carroll0/1G M Lyons
121342
8.0Going 9.0

Most progressive last year, winning 3 of her 4 starts, including this race by 7 lengths. Not as good this year but took a step back in right direction when chasing home a progressive 3-y-o in Group 3 Snow Fairy at the Curragh (9f) 3 weeks ago. Will be hard to beat if giving her running.

Class Advantage

13/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a13/0525/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a20/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par3/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par5/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 30/100 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 30/100 | Actual: 100%13/05Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%20/09Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 78%Pos 4 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 4 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 63%5/05Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 92%29/08
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength73%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.8%Ahead 2/4
5
3
OR 101
13/2
Sindria silks

Sights On Gold Three Partnership

4yo Filly · 9-7

Kodiac - Miss Liguria (Galileo)

J M Sheridan60%1/2J P O'Brien
119353
6.0

Impressive winner of a 1m handicap here in April before following up in C&D listed race in May. Has found life tougher since but ran creditably when 4¼ lengths third to Miss Scott in Snow Fairy Fillies Stakes at the Curragh last time. Will benefit from return to this track and must be respected.

Class Advantage

8/04 · C8 · finish vs mark above8/04 · mark par8/045/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par24/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/05 · mark par7/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par28/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%8/04Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 27%24/05Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 33%28/06Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 85%29/08
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.7%Ahead 2/4
12
Market Fav5
7/4
Star Performer silks

Mrs Doreen Tabor

3yo Filly · 9-2

Sea The Stars - K Club (Kodiac)

Declan McDonogh60%1/1J P O'Brien
11
9.0

Sea The Stars filly who has made a highly promising start to her career, winning both outings, including a C&D listed race last month by 4½ lengths from Hollys Graces. Open to further improvement as she steps up again in grade.

Class Advantage

19/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/0712/08 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a12/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move4
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%19/07Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%12/08
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.4%Ahead 2/2
7
2
OR 102
6/1
Caught U Sleeping silks

Anthony Clarke

3yo Filly · 9-2

Cotai Glory - Parasail (New Approach)

Ben Coen70%0/4N Meade60%
881233
6.0Going 10.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Found improvement when winning listed race at Naas in May and run creditably in defeat since, latest when 2 lengths third of 8 to Believed in Give Thanks Stakes at Cork last time. Place claims.

Class Advantage

12/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above12/04 · mark par12/044/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par9/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par24/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par4/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par14/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par14/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 42%12/04Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 36%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%9/05Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%4/07Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%14/08
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.6%Ahead 2/4
3
6
OR 92
25/1
Hollys Graces silks

Envirogreen Housing Services Ltd

4yo Filly · 9-7

Australia - Potion (Pivotal)

Billy Lee60%1/4H De Bromhead70%
970822
5.0
Blinkers

Runner-up over C&D on last 2 starts, posting a career best when chasing home Star Performer in a listed race on latest in August. This represents a significant step up, though.

Class Advantage

19/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par19/064/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par12/10 · C1 · finish vs mark above12/10 · mark par23/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below23/04 · mark par25/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par12/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par12/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move3
Strength19%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 20%19/06Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 17 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%12/10Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 83%25/07Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 83%12/08
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +40.6%Ahead 2/4
10
4
OR 97
16/1
Saga Gaga silks

Blackbox Bloodstock Limited

3yo Filly · 9-2

Lucky Vega - Sageness (Most Improved)

Seamie Heffernan0/1M O'Callaghan
71154
6.0

Improved markedly from debut to win her next 2 starts, latterly in an 11.5f handicap at Killarney in July, but her progress has stalled in stakes company since, and minor honours may be the best she can hope for.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/0512/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a14/07 · C9 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par25/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move5
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 57%15/05Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%12/06Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%14/07Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 33%25/07Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 77%29/08
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength30%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.2%Ahead 3/4
6
9
OR 95
66/1
Syzygy silks

Andrew Davis

4yo Filly · 9-7

Cable Bay - Solfilia (Teofilo)

Scott McCullagh0/3Daniel McLoughlin60%
362497
3.0
Cheek pieces

Made the frame at listed and Group 3 level this season, but has been held back by slow starts on last 2 starts and faces a tough enough task as it is here without throwing that potential variable into the mix. Must improve.

Class Advantage

12/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below12/04 · mark par12/0418/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/05 · mark par7/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par16/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par21/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move3
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 88%12/04Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 88%7/06Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 11%21/08Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 54%29/08
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.9%Ahead 3/4
11
11
OR 96
50/1
Sky Watch silks

Sky Watch Partnership

3yo Filly · 9-2

Starman - Inuk (Kodiac)

Jamie Powell1/4M O'Callaghan60%
315330
4.0
Cheek pieces

Maiden winner at Dundalk at the third attempt last year and has taken her form up to a useful level this season, third in both the German 1000 Guineas in May and listed race at Killarney in July. Shaped as if amiss last time, though, and needs to improve on those earlier efforts to feature.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/0627/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a21/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par15/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move4
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 58%4/06Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 82%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%21/11Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 78%15/07Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%29/08
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.0%Ahead 3/4
8
7
OR 89
16/1
Classiest silks

Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor

3yo Filly · 9-2

Wootton Bassett - Coral Beach (Zoffany)

Wayne Lordan60%0/1A P O'Brien60%
130
5.0Going 8.0
Blinkers

Sported blinkers when making winning debut over 1m at Galway in the mud last year. Stepped up on that form when 5¾ lengths third of 7 to Star Performer in listed race at Gowran on return but ran poorly last time and has a bit to prove now.

Class Advantage

27/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/1012/08 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a12/088/09 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a8/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move3
Strength8%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%27/10Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%12/08Pos 13 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 13 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 20%8/09
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.0%Ahead 2/3
1
8
OR 92
20/1
Alice Monet silks

Moyglare Stud Farm

4yo Filly · 9-7

Teofilo - Acapella Blu (Dubawi)

Chris Hayes60%2/5D K Weld
114934
3.0Going 8.0

Progressed into a useful filly last summer, winning twice. Showed up well for a long way when third in handicap at Sligo after 10 months off on return but went backwards from that effort from Naas last time. No surprise is she were to bounce back but this looks a tough assignment.

Class Advantage

9/07 · C7 · finish vs mark n/a9/0724/07 · C9 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par21/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par26/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above26/09 · mark par5/08 · C10 · finish vs mark below5/08 · mark par23/08 · C10 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move5
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%9/07Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 63%21/08Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%5/08Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 63%23/08
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.5%Ahead 0/4
9
10
OR 92
33/1
Pollenca silks

Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum

3yo Filly · 9-2

Oasis Dream - Zindana (Dalakhani)

Andrew Slattery60%1/3A Slattery
4104
4.0

Left debut behind to win a 7f Curragh maiden (heavy) in March and took a step back in right direction when 5 lengths fourth of 7 to Caught U Sleeping in listed race at Naas in May. Improvement required on return from 4-month break.

Class Advantage

9/01 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/0115/03 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/034/05 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a4/059/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par9/05projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move4
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 75%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 77%9/01Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%15/03Pos 11 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 11 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 9%4/05Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 50%9/05
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +43.2%Ahead 3/4
4
12
OR 86
50/1
Kalixa silks

Kalixa Partnership

4yo Filly · 9-7

Kingman - Kalaxana (Rock Of Gibraltar)

Ronan WhelanM O'Callaghan
187384
3.0

Fairly useful filly. Ran as well as she ever has when 4½ lengths fourth of 16 to Beset in listed race at Galway last time. Out of her depth in this company, though.

Class Advantage

28/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/0410/05 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a2/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below2/06 · mark par2/10 · C8 · finish vs mark below2/10 · mark par30/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par8/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par8/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move4
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 100y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%28/04Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 25%2/06Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 8 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 0%30/06Pos 4 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 80%8/09
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.3%Ahead 1/4