9
Mcmurray
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 93
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-13 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-12 | Salisbury | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |