12
Naepoint
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Ayr | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Southwell | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Doncaster | 2 | 21th | 21th | 0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Redcar | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 29/06/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/07/2024 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |
| 24/08/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/03/2025 | 21st | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 20/09/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |