14
Naval Light
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 93% | -0.02 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 82% | -0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |