2
Northern Express
8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 96
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Bahrain | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Bahrain | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |