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13

Rainbow Nebula

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got back on the up when winning off this mark at Redcar in May. Has found it harder since but latest Goodwood third of 7 was a step back in the right direction. A visor goes back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 1m5y Std 123 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 79 par27/113OR 792 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 83 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 7f219y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 83 par7/053OR 832 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Gd 123 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 87 par12/062OR 872 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m2f42y Sta 124 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 87 par11/072OR 872 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m Sft 130 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par30/083OR 83projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood33rd4th−1
2026-08-22York217th17th0
2026-07-11York212th12th0
2026-06-25Newcastle25th5th0
2026-06-12York26th6th0
2026-05-25Redcar25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1125/0511/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
28/03/202618th10/147%19%-0.28
07/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
25/05/20265th8/158%56%-0.02
12/06/20266th18/15%67%+0.61
25/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
11/07/202612th66/10%48%+0.48
22/08/202617th66/10%16%+0.16
30/08/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19