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11

Salam Dubawi

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair German 1m winner. Has improved for new yard this season, scoring at Hamilton (9f) in May and good fifth in John Smith's Cup at York (demoted from third for hanging left). Did too much too soon in another strong York handicap at last month's Ebor meeting and the return to 1m looks a good move.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Compiegne 24/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 12824/09C54 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 81 · 7f15y Goo 131 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 81 · 1m1f35y Gd 136 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 81 par15/054OR 812 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 87 · 1m Gd 140 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 87 par5/073OR 872 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 87 · 1m68y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 87 par16/072OR 872 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 87 · 1m GF 121 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 86 · 1m2f56y Goo 121 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 par22/082OR 86projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York211th11th0
2026-07-25Ascot211th11th0
2026-07-16Hamilton24th4th0
2026-07-11York23rd3rd0
2026-07-05Ayr33rd4th−1
2026-05-25Redcar210th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0925/0516/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
26/04/202611th25/10%0%0.00
15/05/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
25/05/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
05/07/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
11/07/20263rd80/10%90%+0.90
16/07/20264th11/893%25%-0.68
25/07/202611th22/10%0%0.00
22/08/202611th28/10%47%+0.47