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Spoken Truth

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 90

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well on several occasions for new connections before deservedly coming good at Ripon (1m, soft) in a first-time tongue tie (retained) 19 days ago. A 5 lb rise shouldn't prevent another bold bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m2f43y GS 122 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 81 par29/033OR 814 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 81 · 1m1f170y GS 131 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 1m2f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 85 par25/052OR 852 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 85 · 1m2f17y Goo 114 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m2f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 86 par20/064OR 862 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m1f209y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m GF 119 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par25/072OR 853 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 85 · 1m1f35y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Sft 127 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 85 par31/082OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon21st1st0
2026-08-11Hamilton33rd4th−1
2026-07-25Ascot24th4th0
2026-07-04Sandown26th6th0
2026-06-20Nottingham42nd4th−2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/035/0625/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
16/04/20262nd5/287%89%+0.02
25/05/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
05/06/20263rd12/137%87%+0.50
20/06/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
04/07/20266th7/282%38%-0.44
25/07/20264th25/10%70%+0.70
11/08/20263rd3/184%83%-0.01
31/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08