10

That's Amore

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 88

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced sort who resumed with win in 11f Southwell novice in March but has failed to beat a rival in listed races over 1¼m and 1½m since. Takes a marked drop in trip back from 3 months off but Oisin Murphy has been booked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 26/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m7y Hvy 12826/1041 @ Chester 07/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f75y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0513 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 90 · 1m3f23y Std 133 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 90 par4/033OR 901 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 90 · 1m2f50y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 90 par26/041OR 901 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m4f70y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 90 par19/061OR 90projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Limerick110th9th+1
2026-04-26Nottingham16th5th+1
2026-03-04Southwell31st2nd1
2025-05-07Chester14th3rd+1
2024-10-26Newbury41st3rd2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/107/054/0326/0419/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
07/05/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
04/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
26/04/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
19/06/202610th12/137%0%-0.37