5
Theoryofeverything
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 90
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |