6
Thunder Roar
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 90
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 84% | +0.84 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/03/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 05/06/2026 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |