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Ecureuil Secret

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 109

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive on going softer than good in Ireland at 3 and took it up another notch for new yard with impressive win in handicap at last year's Epsom Derby meeting (good to soft). Not disgraced on faster ground in 2 subsequent outings last summer. This is a belated return but has good record fresh.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 07/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m Hvy 1327/04C81 @ Curragh 06/05/2024 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 1m Sft 1311 @ Curragh 26/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 98 · 1m2f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2024 · OR 98 par26/051OR 981 @ Curragh 29/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m2f Yie 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2024 · OR 100 parC1 @ Craon 31/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 100 · 1m3f204y Sft 119 · beat its mark31/08/2024 · OR 100 par31/08C1OR 100C1 @ Deauville 21/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 103 · 1m4f94y Hvy 125 · beat its mark21/10/2024 · OR 103 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 103 · 1m2f17y Goo 133 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 103 par6/062OR 1031 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 112 · 1m1f212y Goo 131 · below its mark17/06/2025 · OR 112 par1 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 112 · 1m2f56y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 112 par26/071OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-07-26York13rd3rd+0
2025-06-17Royal Ascot110th10th0
2025-06-06Epsom Downs21st2nd−1
2024-10-21Deauville?3rd3rd0
2024-08-31Craon?2nd2nd0
2024-06-29Curragh13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0429/066/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/20241st15/261%100%+0.39
06/05/20244th6/168%25%-0.43
26/05/20243rd14/126%71%+0.45
29/06/20243rd14/126%71%+0.45
31/08/20242nd11/486%89%+0.03
21/10/20243rd5/287%80%-0.07
06/06/20251st28/10%100%+1.00
17/06/202510th12/137%40%+0.03
26/07/20253rd50/10%67%+0.67