2
El Burhan
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 101
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Chester | 2 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 87% | +0.01 |
| 08/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/06/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 42% | -0.16 |