4
Grey Cuban
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 107
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 2 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Chester | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/07/2025 | 17th | 13/2 | 66% | 6% | -0.60 |
| 30/08/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 08/11/2025 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |