16
Advertised
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 91
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#20
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#20
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 258% of fieldRange 12-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 23rd of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 52% | +0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |