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7

Brazilian Rose

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 91

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#17

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of 4 6f/7f handicaps at Southwell early this season but has found life tough contesting listed events since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 79 par9/034OR 794 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f16y Std 129 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 85 par3/042OR 851 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 7f15y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f1y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/061OR 901 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 95 par1 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par29/071OR 931 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 91 par1 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 90 · 5f110y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 90 par18/091OR 90projClass-projected finish: 18th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr111th10th+1
2026-08-16Pontefract17th6th+1
2026-07-29Goodwood112th10th+1
2026-07-07Pontefract19th8th+1
2026-06-27Chester16th5th+1
2026-06-06Musselburgh15th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/036/0629/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2533% of fieldRange 13-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
13/03/20261st11/588%100%+0.12
03/04/20263rd25/10%80%+0.80
06/06/20265th28/10%33%+0.33
27/06/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
07/07/20269th66/10%27%+0.27
29/07/202612th150/10%8%+0.08
16/08/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
18/09/202611th150/10%23%+0.23