6
Commanche Falls
9yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 91
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#24
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#24
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Bahrain | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Bahrain | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish25th of 250% of fieldRange 21-25 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 25th of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 94% | +0.41 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 13% | -0.43 |