4
Deep Havana
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 90
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2023-11-09 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2023-10-19 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 25100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 25. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2023 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/11/2023 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |