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Desert Falcon

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 95

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoyed a fine 2025 when a dual winner and also runner-up in Gold Cup here. Right back on track following a breathing operation this summer, coming in a close sixth of 21 in Portland at Doncaster (5.5f, good) week ago. Primed for a bold showing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 17/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 83 par17/053OR 834 @ Haydock 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 6f212y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Thirsk 02/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 88 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 88 par2/083OR 882 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 88 · 6f111y Goo 121 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 25 · OR 88 · 6f Sft 126 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 88 par20/092OR 882 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 97 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 96 · 7f6y GF 136 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 96 par6/063OR 962 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 93 · 5f143y Gd 128 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 93 par12/092OR 93projClass-projected finish: 7th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster26th6th0
2026-08-22York29th9th0
2026-06-06Doncaster39th10th−1
2026-05-13York214th14th0
2025-09-20Ayr22nd2nd0
2025-09-14Doncaster21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0514/096/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2588% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20252nd7/163%91%+0.28
04/07/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20253rd5/287%83%-0.04
14/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
20/09/20252nd8/158%96%+0.38
13/05/202614th33/10%38%+0.38
06/06/20269th6/168%20%-0.48
22/08/20269th66/10%58%+0.58
12/09/20266th20/10%75%+0.75