14
Goldmoyne
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#25
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#25
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2525% of fieldRange 11-22 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 19th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.08 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |