11
Havana Blue
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 85
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2596% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 94% | +0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |