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4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 90

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#21

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#21

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is enjoying a fine season and recorded his third win of the year when making all at Beverley (5f) in July. Good second in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon (6f) subsequently but beat only one in Portland at Doncaster (5.5f, good) 7 days ago. Bounce back is needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 77 par23/044OR 774 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 83 · 5f Gd 118 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 83 par14/052OR 834 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 81 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 5f Gd 121 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 81 par20/063OR 814 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 140 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 5f3y Goo 135 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 89 par17/073OR 892 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 118 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 90 · 5f143y Gd 125 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 par12/092OR 90projClass-projected finish: 17th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster220th20th0
2026-08-15Ripon22nd2nd0
2026-07-17Pontefract36th7th−1
2026-07-03Beverley41st3rd−2
2026-06-20Redcar31st2nd−1
2026-06-05Musselburgh43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/045/0617/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish22nd of 2513% of fieldRange 7-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength21%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 22nd of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
26/04/20264th3/184%73%-0.11
14/05/202620th28/10%5%+0.05
05/06/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
20/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
03/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
17/07/20266th3/184%17%-0.68
15/08/20262nd33/10%92%+0.92
12/09/202620th25/10%5%+0.05