17
Jungle Drums
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 3 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Southwell | 3 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2567% of fieldRange 1-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 25th | 125/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 80/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 31/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 29/03/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 70% | -0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |