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9

Lord Roxby

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 90

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable type who returned to best when winning at York (6f) in May and doubled his tally for the season at Ripon (6f) in August. Solid third in Great St Wilfrid there since and poorly drawn when eleventh at Thirsk (6f, good) last time. Not out of things.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 81 · 7f96y Goo 136 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 81 par23/044OR 814 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par23/054OR 784 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 84 par1/073OR 843 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 85 par3/083OR 852 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 119 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 90 · 6f Gd 140 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 90 par28/083OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Thirsk311th12th−1
2026-08-15Ripon23rd3rd0
2026-08-03Ripon31st2nd−1
2026-07-20Ayr32nd3rd−1
2026-07-01Thirsk35th6th−1
2026-06-13York44th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0413/063/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2542% of fieldRange 13-25 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 15th of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20269th12/137%11%-0.26
09/05/202613th14/126%29%+0.03
23/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
13/06/20264th17/255%85%+0.30
01/07/20265th6/168%56%-0.13
20/07/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
03/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
15/08/20263rd10/382%85%+0.02
28/08/202611th10/147%41%-0.06