3
Mirabeau
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 95
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#22
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#22
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 19th | 20th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 254% of fieldRange 17-25 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 24th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/03/2026 | 19th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 19th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |