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Musical Touch

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 88

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Southwell in April and also bagged 21-runner handicap at York (6f) in June. Not disgraced off a career-high mark with third of 9 at Thirsk (6f, good to soft) 2 weeks ago. No forlorn hope.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 24/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 6f3y Sft 137 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 84 par24/074OR 842 @ Chepstow 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f16y GS 117 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 133 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par6/093OR 832 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 25 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 80 par2/044OR 804 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 135 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par13/064OR 842 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 88 par5/093OR 88projClass-projected finish: 8th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk33rd4th−1
2026-07-25York212th12th0
2026-06-13York41st3rd−2
2026-05-08Ripon47th9th−2
2026-04-02Southwell41st3rd−2
2025-09-19Ayr215th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0719/0913/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2546% of fieldRange 2-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20254th12/137%70%+0.33
07/08/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
06/09/202515th11/486%7%-0.79
19/09/202515th20/10%42%+0.42
02/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/05/20267th9/276%25%-0.51
13/06/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
25/07/202612th25/10%45%+0.45
05/09/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07