IvyArcIvyArc
8

Station X

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 86

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#23

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#23

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has proved admirably consistent when racing over 6f this year, gaining a third victory of the campaign at Chester in August. Rare below-par effort when fourteenth of 21 in Portland at Doncaster (5.5f, good) 7 days ago but no surprise to see him bounce back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 6f16y Std 130 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 81 par20/024OR 814 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 6f16y Std 134 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 82 par30/044OR 823 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 84 · 5f7y Gd 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 142 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 84 par9/064OR 843 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 6f17y Goo 125 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 86 · 6f6y Goo 136 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 86 par11/084OR 863 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 89 · 5f143y Gd 124 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 89 par12/092OR 89projClass-projected finish: 6th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster214th14th0
2026-08-22Chester31st2nd−1
2026-08-11Hamilton43rd5th−2
2026-06-13Chester31st2nd−1
2026-06-09Carlisle44th6th−2
2026-05-17Hamilton36th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0217/0511/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish21st of 2517% of fieldRange 13-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 21st of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
27/03/20263rd3/184%82%-0.02
30/04/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
17/05/20266th9/276%58%-0.18
09/06/20264th11/271%70%-0.01
13/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
11/08/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
22/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
12/09/202614th20/10%35%+0.35