IvyArcIvyArc
5

Toyotomi

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 94

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Listed winner when trained in France. Got off the mark for current yard at Goodwood (6f, soft) in June and shaped well when tenth of 24 in handicap at the Curragh (6f, good to soft) 6 days ago, still on bridle 1f out but unable to get through in time. Interesting with Oisin Murphy now up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 18th of 25 · OR 102 · 6f Sft 135 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 102 par20/092OR 1023 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 140 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 97 par3 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 95 par13/043OR 953 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 92 par31/052OR 923 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 137 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 19th of 27 · OR 92 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 92 par20/062OR 922 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 94 parBHA94 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 24 · OR 94 · 6f Yie 129 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 94 par13/0994OR 94projClass-projected finish: 16th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA9410th19th−7
2026-08-30Goodwood26th6th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot219th19th0
2026-06-07Goodwood31st2nd−1
2026-05-31Thirsk23rd3rd0
2026-05-08Ascot36th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/098/0520/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2592% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 25.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202518th66/10%29%+0.29
12/10/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
13/04/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
08/05/20266th15/261%44%-0.16
31/05/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
07/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
20/06/202619th80/10%31%+0.31
30/08/20266th9/153%44%-0.08
13/09/202610th25/10%61%+0.61