22
Tricky Tel
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 89
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2575% of fieldRange 9-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 19/08/2026 | 19th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |