24
Uncle Don
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 87
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#19
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2538% of fieldRange 1-25 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 16th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 17/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 45% | -0.40 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 15/06/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |