13
Veblen Good
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2550% of fieldRange 23-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 25. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 05/06/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.80 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 28/08/2026 | 14th | 9/2 | 76% | 24% | -0.53 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |