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21

We Never Stop

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 87

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f

#16

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win since last spring (last 3 wins on all-weather) but returned to form on the back of a breathing operation when second at Chester in June. Not best drawn when seventh at Thirsk (6f, good) last time so possibilities.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 12.8 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 95 · 6f16y Std 129 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 95 par1/012OR 952 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 94 · 6f Sta 131 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 92 par19/032OR 923 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 92 · 5f Gd 132 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 22 · OR 91 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 91 par13/052OR 912 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 133 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 86 par27/063OR 862 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 137 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 87 par28/083OR 87projClass-projected finish: 19th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Thirsk37th8th−1
2026-07-25York221th21th0
2026-06-27Chester32nd3rd−1
2026-05-23York216th16th0
2026-05-13York219th19th0
2026-04-14Newmarket38th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0114/0427/0628/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2558% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +10.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 25. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/20267th12/137%50%+0.13
11/02/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
19/03/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
14/04/20268th13/266%0%-0.66
13/05/202619th50/10%14%+0.14
23/05/202616th28/10%0%0.00
27/06/20262nd18/15%88%+0.82
25/07/202621st33/10%0%0.00
28/08/20267th22/10%65%+0.65