23
Wicket Keeper
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 87
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap · 6f
#15
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 21th | 21th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Yarmouth | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-21 | Ayr | 3 | 18th | 19th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2529% of fieldRange 7-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 25.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/07/2025 | 18th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 13/05/2026 | 21st | 100/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |