3
Dark Issue
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 97
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -25.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 30% | -0.57 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |