4
Etonnante
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 92
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |