5
Nour
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 81
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength8%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |