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Ruby Moon

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 95

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Carlisle and then improved to finish fourth behind 3 subsequent winners in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July. Underperformed at York on soft going last time so would appreciate any drying of the ground but she's a player if coping with conditions given same connections won this race last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f182y GF 12824/0641 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/0711 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 95 · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 95 par20/081OR 95projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York19th9th+0
2026-07-10Newmarket14th4th+0
2026-06-24Carlisle41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0610/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -9.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/07/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
20/08/20269th10/147%50%+0.03