8
Silesia
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 87
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +16.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |