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Aramram

5yo Horse · 9-10 · OR 108

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart sprinter who did all he could from a less-than-ideal position when seventh in this corresponding event 12 months ago. This a more realistic than his assignment in the Group 1 Sprint Cup last time, though probably too high in the weights to win such a competitive handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 98 · 6f Sta 138 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 98 par6/092OR 982 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 25 · OR 98 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 97 par3/102OR 971 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 101 · 6f2y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 101 par1 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 107 par16/041OR 1071 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 110 · 6f Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 110 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 110 par20/061OR 1102 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 109 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 108 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 108 par5/091OR 108projClass-projected finish: 12th of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock16th4th+2
2026-08-15Ripon25th5th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot115th13th+2
2026-05-13York15th3rd+2
2026-04-16Newmarket12nd0th+1
2026-03-28Doncaster11st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0928/0320/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2542% of fieldRange 13-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20253rd15/890%82%-0.08
20/09/20257th20/10%75%+0.75
03/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
28/03/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
16/04/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
13/05/20265th11/271%67%-0.04
20/06/202615th100/10%18%+0.18
15/08/20265th7/163%69%+0.06
05/09/20266th33/10%29%+0.29